OO 5738 · SFO → FAT

departs 10:35 PM PT · arrives 11:41 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAT?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FAT (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5738 · SFO → FAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAT?