OO 6040 · DSM → ORD

departs 1:31 PM CT · arrives 3:06 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

55% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
18%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 2.0 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↓ DSM usually runs smoothly

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DSM (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.95 in

ORD (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.77 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 6040 · DSM → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?