OO 6249 · RIC → ORD

departs 8:29 PM ET · arrives 9:37 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
30%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RIC (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.77 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 6249 · RIC → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?