QX 2178 · SBA → PDX

took off 7:34 AM PT · expected to land 9:28 AM PT (scheduled 7:29 AM PT → 10:03 AM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PDX?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7am departures from SBA are often late

↑ QX's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ PDX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SBA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2178 · SBA → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?