Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1055 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

UA 1055 · SMF → DEN

departs 11:43 AM PT · arrives 2:47 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1055 · SMF → DEN

Odds over time