UA 1204 · AUS → SFO

departs 8:48 PM CT · arrives 10:36 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 8pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.14 in

SFO (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1204 · AUS → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?