Schedule: FAA flight plans.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1210 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

UA 1210 · SAT → SFO

took off 6:59 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 6:49 PM CT → 8:55 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.23 in

SFO (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1210 · SAT → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?