UA 1264 · ORD → PWM

departs 6:11 PM CT · arrives 9:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?

83% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PWM?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ PWM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

PWM (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1264 · ORD → PWM

Odds over time

How late will it get to PWM?