Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1298 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30

UA 1298 · SFO → LIH

departs 10:36 AM PT · arrives 1:16 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 2.6 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LIH (destination) Gusts34 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.89 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1298 · SFO → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?