Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1405 LANDED 3:36 PM CT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

UA 1405 · BZE → IAH

took off · landed 3:36 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts −32 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↑ BZE is busy at that time

↓ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BZE (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

IAH (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1405 · BZE → IAH

Odds over time