Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1410 LANDED 12:22 PM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

UA 1410 · EWR → RDU

took off 11:17 AM ET · landed 12:22 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1410 · EWR → RDU

Odds over time