UA 1470 · SBP → DEN

took off 1:17 PM PT · landed 4:29 PM MT (scheduled 12:52 PM PT → 4:23 PM MT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DEN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at SBP that day

Weather at each end

SBP (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1470 · SBP → DEN

Odds over time

How late did it get to DEN?