Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1488 LANDED 1:34 PM ET, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

UA 1488 · CLE → MCO

took off 11:34 AM ET · landed 1:34 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ MCO is busy at that time

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ This flight has been late 12% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE

Weather at each end

CLE (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling9,600 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.07 in

MCO (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1488 · CLE → MCO

Odds over time