UA 1503 · DTW → ORD

departs 9:00 AM ET · arrives 9:17 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.53 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1503 · DTW → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?