UA 1564 · ORD → SAN

departs 8:09 PM CT · arrives 10:21 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±4 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SAN that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

SAN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1564 · ORD → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?