Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 15 LANDED 6:03 PM ET, ~2 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

UA 15 · LHR → EWR

took off 3:44 PM BST · landed 6:03 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LHR (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

EWR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 15 · LHR → EWR

Odds over time