UA 1702 · SFO → TPA

departs 9:03 PM PT · arrives 5:12 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +32 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
43%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1702 · SFO → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?