Schedule: FAA flight plans.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 178 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

UA 178 · FCO → DEN

took off 5:50 PM CEST · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 2:30 PM CEST → 5:56 PM MT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts −16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

FCO (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

DEN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 178 · FCO → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?