Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 181 LANDED 1:25 PM MT, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

UA 181 · FRA → DEN

took off 11:45 AM CEST · landed 1:25 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts −15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

FRA (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

DEN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 181 · FRA → DEN

Odds over time