Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1822 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

UA 1822 · DEN → MRY

departs 7:45 PM MT · arrives 8:53 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

MRY (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1822 · DEN → MRY

Odds over time