UA 1839 · ORD → DSM

departs 9:25 PM CT · arrives 10:56 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
24%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 486 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ DSM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

DSM (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip1.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1839 · ORD → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?