UA 1853 · MTY → IAH

departs 3:58 PM CST · arrives 6:30 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at IAH that day

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MTY (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

IAH (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1853 · MTY → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?