Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1863 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

UA 1863 · EWR → MCO

took off 7:23 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1863 · EWR → MCO

Odds over time