Schedule: FAA flight plans.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1946 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

UA 1946 · ORD → PIT

took off 7:11 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 6:05 PM CT → 8:51 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
10%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ PIT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

PIT (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1946 · ORD → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?