UA 2051 · MCI → SFO

took off 7:53 AM CT · landed 9:10 AM PT (scheduled 7:31 AM CT → 9:18 AM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SFO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ 7am departures from MCI are usually not late

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,620 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.59 in

SFO (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2051 · MCI → SFO

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFO?