Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2053 LANDED 9:20 AM ET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

UA 2053 · RSW → EWR

took off 6:52 AM ET · landed 9:20 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from RSW are usually not late

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

EWR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2053 · RSW → EWR

Odds over time