Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2177 LANDED 7:26 AM PT, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

UA 2177 · AUS → SFO

took off 6:13 AM CT · landed 7:26 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ Other factors

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from AUS are usually not late

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.14 in

SFO (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2177 · AUS → SFO

Odds over time