Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2228 LANDED 8:44 AM CT, ~21 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

UA 2228 · ORD → IAH

took off 6:34 AM CT · landed 8:44 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Other factors

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

IAH (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2228 · ORD → IAH

Odds over time