Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2281 LANDED 3:35 PM PT, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

UA 2281 · SEA → SFO

took off 1:55 PM PT · landed 3:35 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 1pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2281 · SEA → SFO

Odds over time