Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2423 LANDED 12:02 PM PT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

UA 2423 · PHX → SNA

took off 11:09 AM MT · landed 12:02 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 11am departures from PHX are often late

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2423 · PHX → SNA

Odds over time