tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: FAA flight plans.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2435 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

UA 2435 · IAD → SMF

took off 6:17 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 5:55 PM ET → 8:40 PM PT)
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
24% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 2.7d 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to SMF?

  1. On time or early
    75%
  2. 15–30 min late
    14%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    4%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    3%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.