UA 2615 · PDX → SFO

departs 7:22 PM PT · arrives 9:10 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2615 · PDX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?