UA 2825 · ORD → PHL

departs 4:33 PM CT · arrives 7:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.53 in

PHL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2825 · ORD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?