Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2828 LANDED 11:43 AM PT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

UA 2828 · EWR → LAS

took off 9:57 AM ET · landed 11:43 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2828 · EWR → LAS

Odds over time