UA 2853 · SAT → DEN

took off 9:16 AM CT · landed 10:01 AM MT (scheduled 8:53 AM CT → 10:11 AM MT)

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DEN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

DEN (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2853 · SAT → DEN

Odds over time

How late did it get to DEN?