Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2856 LANDED 9:54 AM ET, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

UA 2856 · ORD → PHL

took off 7:23 AM CT · landed 9:54 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2856 · ORD → PHL

Odds over time