Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 3021 LANDED 1:31 PM ET, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

UA 3021 · LIS → EWR

took off 11:35 AM WEST · landed 1:31 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

LIS (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

EWR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3021 · LIS → EWR

Odds over time