Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 3894 LANDED 9:16 AM PT, ~19 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

UA 3894 · XMN → SFO

took off · landed 9:16 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 21h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

XMN (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SFO (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3894 · XMN → SFO

Odds over time