UA 3938 · SFO → EWR

departs 8:07 AM PT · arrives 4:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3938 · SFO → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?