Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 406 LANDED 7:20 AM ET, ~17 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

UA 406 · LAS → EWR

took off 12:06 AM PT · landed 7:20 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 19h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 406 · LAS → EWR

Odds over time