UA 421 · IAD → ORD

departs 10:16 PM ET · arrives 11:13 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 421 · IAD → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?