UA 439 · AUS → DEN

took off 6:14 PM CT · landed 6:54 PM MT (scheduled 6:29 PM CT → 8:00 PM MT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DEN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.14 in

DEN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 439 · AUS → DEN

Odds over time

How late did it get to DEN?