UA 4 · LHR → IAH

took off 4:00 PM BST · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 1:33 PM BST → 5:01 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −24 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LHR (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

IAH (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 4 · LHR → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?