Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 505 LANDED 5:32 AM CT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

UA 505 · SFO → IAH

took off 12:13 AM PT · landed 5:32 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 19h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 505 · SFO → IAH

Odds over time