Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 581 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

UA 581 · SFO → RNO

departs 7:06 PM PT · arrives 7:42 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RNO (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 581 · SFO → RNO

Odds over time