UA 643 · SFO → SNA

took off 10:32 AM PT · expected to land 11:33 AM PT (scheduled 10:23 AM PT → 12:06 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SNA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 643 · SFO → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?