Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 700 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

UA 700 · IAH → EWR

departs 8:36 PM CT · arrives 12:38 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at IAH that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 700 · IAH → EWR

Odds over time