Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8182 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

UA 8182 · MSY → DEN

departs 8:49 PM CT · arrives 10:05 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8182 · MSY → DEN

Odds over time