WN 1064 · BWI → ROC

took off 4:27 PM ET · expected to land 5:13 PM ET (scheduled 4:06 PM ET → 5:26 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

2% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ROC?

LIVE

On time or early
98%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ROC (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1064 · BWI → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?