Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 106 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

WN 106 · MDW → DTW

took off 7:22 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 6:14 PM CT → 8:24 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±1 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.94 in

DTW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 106 · MDW → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?